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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 13

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(8:24) 4-G.Zuerlein 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 13, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model