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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 20 at the 90

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 9-J.Ryan punts 44 yards to LA 46, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-P.Cooper to SEA 1 for 53 yards (23-N.Thorpe).

The Three Options

GO -3.43 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 90, worth -5.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 47, worth -2.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model