4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 69

Los Angeles Rams 40 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to SEA 23, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-50-S.Ebukam.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.31 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 69, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 27, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP