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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 40

Los Angeles Rams 42 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 14-S.Mannion up the middle to SEA 37 for 3 yards (99-Q.Jefferson).

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.17 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model