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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
Monday 2017-12-11 · 20:30 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread -10.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

NE
75.5%
MIA
24.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.165 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Jay Cutler (MIA) -0.100 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.299 EPA/dropback
  • MIA offense: -0.142 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 28
–
MIA 19
Projected margin: NE by 9 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

NE

Marcus Cannon T Out Ankle
Kyle Van Noy LB Out Calf
Mike Gillislee RB Questionable Illness
Marquis Flowers LB Questionable Knee
Trey Flowers DE Questionable Rib
Stephon Gilmore CB Questionable Ankle
Chris Hogan WR Questionable Shoulder
Brandon King S Questionable Hamstring
Dion Lewis RB Questionable Illness
Eric Rowe CB Questionable Groin
Matt Slater WR Questionable Hamstring
LaAdrian Waddle T Questionable Ankle
Deatrich Wise DE Questionable Foot

MIA

Jermon Bushrod G Out Foot
Matt Moore QB Out Foot
Damien Williams RB Out Shoulder
Cordrea Tankersley CB Doubtful Ankle
Michael Thomas S Questionable Knee
Davon Godchaux DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 20
–
MIA 27

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:05 FG MIA (9:05) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. NE 0 – MIA 3
  • Q1 03:53 FG MIA (3:53) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. NE 0 – MIA 6
  • Q2 06:24 TD NE (6:24) 68-L.Waddle reported in as eligible. 34-R.Burkhead left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – MIA 6
  • Q2 03:39 TD MIA (3:39) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 14-J.Landry for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 7 – MIA 12
  • Q2 00:06 FG NE (:06) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 10 – MIA 13
  • Q3 11:09 TD MIA (11:09) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep left to 19-J.Grant for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – MIA 19
  • Q3 04:48 TD MIA (4:48) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle to 14-J.Landry for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 10 – MIA 26
  • Q4 13:09 TD NE (13:09) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – MIA 27
  • Q4 00:57 FG NE (:57) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 20 – MIA 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 61%

    (11:01) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 11-D.Parker pushed ob at NE 21 for 15 yards (24-S.Gilmore).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 11 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%

    (9:05) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 82%

    (3:53) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:59) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 44 yards to MIA 29, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-29-J.Bademosi.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 30%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 39 yards to NE 9, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.77 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (11:21) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to MIA 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-29-J.Bademosi.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:25) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 45 yards to NE 36, Center-92-J.Denney. 17-B.Reedy to NE 49 for 13 yards (21-J.Lucas; 92-J.Denney).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 78%

    (:06) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (9:12) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 53 yards to MIA 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 9 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:34) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to MIA 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:46) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 56 yards to NE 24, Center-92-J.Denney. 17-B.Reedy to NE 32 for 8 yards (59-C.Allen). PENALTY on MIA-21-J.Lucas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NE 32.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:00) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 53 yards to NE 25, Center-92-J.Denney. 17-B.Reedy ran ob at NE 48 for 23 yards. PENALTY on NE-23-P.Chung, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 25. Penalty on NE-50-N.Grigsby, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:34) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to MIA 38, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 38 for no gain (29-J.Bademosi). PENALTY on MIA-33-T.McTyer, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 38.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:01) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 41 yards to NE 14, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-D.Amendola to NE 19 for 5 yards (45-M.Hull).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (7:15) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to MIA 29, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Landry to MIA 38 for 9 yards (37-J.Richards; 47-J.Hollister).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:29) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 38 yards to NE 22, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 11 at the 79 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:28) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 50 yards to MIA 29, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:33) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 43 yards to NE 12, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-D.Amendola to NE 23 for 11 yards (34-S.Perry; 78-T.Fede).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 15 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%

    (:57) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.