4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 75

New England Patriots 17 – Miami Dolphins 27

What Actually Happened

(7:15) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to MIA 29, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Landry to MIA 38 for 9 yards (37-J.Richards; 47-J.Hollister).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.83 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 75, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model