Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 85

New England Patriots 17 – Miami Dolphins 27

What Actually Happened

(10:34) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to MIA 38, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 38 for no gain (29-J.Bademosi). PENALTY on MIA-33-T.McTyer, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 38.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.64 EP
60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 85, worth -4.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model