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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 36

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(11:01) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 11-D.Parker pushed ob at NE 21 for 15 yards (24-S.Gilmore).

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.96 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model