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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 48

Miami Dolphins 6 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 39 yards to NE 9, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.26 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model