Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 60

Miami Dolphins 27 – New England Patriots 17

(5:29) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 38 yards to NE 22, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.26 EP
66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 60, worth -3.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model