Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 67

New England Patriots 10 – Miami Dolphins 27

(3:34) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to MIA 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.22 EP
61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 67, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model