Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 73

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 6

(2:59) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 44 yards to MIA 29, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-29-J.Bademosi.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 73, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model