Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 81

Miami Dolphins 6 – New England Patriots 0

(9:25) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 45 yards to NE 36, Center-92-J.Denney. 17-B.Reedy to NE 49 for 13 yards (21-J.Lucas; 92-J.Denney).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.26 EP
56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 81, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model