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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 12

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(9:05) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.58 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 12, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model