Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 79

New England Patriots 17 – Miami Dolphins 27

(4:28) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 50 yards to MIA 29, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.44 EP
62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 79, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model