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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 26

Miami Dolphins 3 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(3:53) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.67 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 26, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model