Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- MIN defense: -0.167 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- ATL offense: +0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- MIN offense: +0.016 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- MIN on 3 more days rest than ATL
- QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.152 vs Case Keenum (MIN) +0.134 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 13
MIN
ATL
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 05:29 FG ATL (5:29) 3-M.Bryant 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. MIN 0 – ATL 3
- Q2 10:06 TD MIN (10:06) (Shotgun) 75-J.Sirles reported in as eligible. 7-C.Keenum pass short right to 21-J.McKinnon for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – ATL 3
- Q2 05:51 FG ATL (5:51) 3-M.Bryant 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. MIN 7 – ATL 6
- Q3 12:01 FG ATL (12:01) 3-M.Bryant 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. MIN 7 – ATL 9
- Q4 15:00 TD MIN (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass short middle to 82-K.Rudolph for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – ATL 9
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EPp(convert) 53%
(12:55) 4-R.Quigley punts 34 yards to ATL 22, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 2 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 58%
(7:25) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 26-T.Coleman to MIN 24 for 15 yards (55-A.Barr).
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Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 91%
(5:29) 3-M.Bryant 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q1 MIN 4th & 19 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 36%
(1:42) 4-R.Quigley punts 46 yards to ATL 2, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 92Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(:13) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to MIN 47, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%
(5:51) 3-M.Bryant 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 14 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(4:00) 4-R.Quigley punts 50 yards to ATL 29, Center-47-K.McDermott. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 32 for 3 yards (30-C.Ham).
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Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 51Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 29%
(1:52) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to MIN 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 3 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 80%
(12:01) 3-M.Bryant 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q3 MIN 4th & 13 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(9:48) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to ATL 29, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 18 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(8:20) 5-M.Bosher punts 54 yards to MIN 11, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(13:27) 5-M.Bosher punts 56 yards to MIN 17, Center-47-J.Harris. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 27 for 10 yards (50-B.Reed; 80-L.Toilolo).
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Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 83%
(5:04) 3-M.Bryant 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.