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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 27

Atlanta Falcons 9 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 3-M.Bryant 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.33 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model