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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 79

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 4-R.Quigley punts 50 yards to ATL 29, Center-47-K.McDermott. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 32 for 3 yards (30-C.Ham).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 79, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 36, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model