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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 65

Atlanta Falcons 9 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(8:20) 5-M.Bosher punts 54 yards to MIN 11, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.05 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 23, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model