4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 20

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 3-M.Bryant 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.20 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 20, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.74 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT +0.65 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model