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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 73

Atlanta Falcons 9 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 5-M.Bosher punts 56 yards to MIN 17, Center-47-J.Harris. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 27 for 10 yards (50-B.Reed; 80-L.Toilolo).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.37 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 73, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 31, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model