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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 51

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to MIN 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.81 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 51, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP