4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 56

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 4-R.Quigley punts 34 yards to ATL 22, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.42 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 56, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP