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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 92

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(:13) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to MIN 47, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.63 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 92, worth -5.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 50, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model