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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 73

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Atlanta Falcons 9

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to ATL 29, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.96 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 73, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model