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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 18

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 3-M.Bryant 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.02 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 18, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 28, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model