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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 39

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(7:25) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 26-T.Coleman to MIN 24 for 15 yards (55-A.Barr).

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.81 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT +0.76 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model