4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2017-11-26 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 💨 Windy Spread -5.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

CAR
43.9%
NYJ
56.1%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ defense: -0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Wind 23 mph
  • CAR offense: -0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • QB edge to CAR: Josh McCown (NYJ) -0.026 vs Cam Newton (CAR) -0.022 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CAR 20
–
NYJ 22
Projected margin: NYJ by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

CAR

Captain Munnerlyn CB Questionable Illness
Ryan Kalil C Questionable Neck
Tyler Larsen C Questionable Foot

NYJ

Matt Forte RB Questionable Knee
Muhammad Wilkerson DE Questionable Foot
Brian Winters G Questionable Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 35
–
NYJ 27

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:59 FG CAR (9:59) 9-G.Gano 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 3 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 05:16 FG NYJ (5:16) 7-C.Catanzaro 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. CAR 3 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 10:07 TD CAR (10:07) 72-T.Moton reported in as eligible. 1-C.Newton left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 04:02 FG CAR (4:02) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 12 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 01:12 TD NYJ (1:12) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass deep right to 11-R.Anderson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CAR 12 – NYJ 9
  • Q3 05:52 TD NYJ (5:52) 15-J.McCown pass deep right to 11-R.Anderson for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CAR 12 – NYJ 16
  • Q3 01:17 TD CAR (1:17) (Shotgun) 28-J.Stewart right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 18 – NYJ 17
  • Q4 14:03 FG NYJ (14:03) 7-C.Catanzaro 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. CAR 18 – NYJ 20
  • Q4 12:16 TD CAR (12:16) 15-J.McCown sacked at NYJ 36 for -9 yards (96-W.Horton). FUMBLES (96-W.Horton) [96-W.Horton], touched at NYJ 36, RECOVERED by CAR-59-L.Kuechly at NYJ 34. 59-L.Kuechly for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 24 – NYJ 20
  • Q4 10:09 TD CAR (10:09) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to CAR 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-K.Clay for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 32 – NYJ 20
  • Q4 05:37 TD NYJ (5:37) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass short right to 10-J.Kearse for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 32 – NYJ 26
  • Q4 00:25 FG CAR (:25) 9-G.Gano 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 35 – NYJ 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 40%

    (11:54) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at NYJ 30 for 9 yards (58-D.Lee).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 84%

    (9:59) 9-G.Gano 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 94%

    (5:16) 7-C.Catanzaro 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:23) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to CAR 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 22-C.McCaffrey.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (8:46) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to CAR 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 23 for 14 yards (32-J.Burris; 54-B.Carter).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (7:18) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to NYJ 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 10 for -7 yards (54-S.Thompson).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:22) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to CAR 43, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 22-C.McCaffrey to NYJ 49 for 8 yards (47-D.Bass).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 92%

    (4:02) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:52) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to CAR 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-K.Clay to CAR 24 for 5 yards (83-E.Tomlinson).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:19) 5-M.Palardy punts 41 yards to NYJ 35, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-J.Natson MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYJ 35. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 35 for no gain (19-R.Shepard).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:31) 4-L.Edwards punts 60 yards to CAR 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-K.Clay to CAR 26 for 8 yards (51-J.Stanford; 45-R.Miles).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 11 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:26) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to NYJ 40, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 32%

    (7:50) 4-L.Edwards punts 28 yards to CAR 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-K.Clay.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 11 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:28) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to NYJ 35, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 32 for -3 yards (54-S.Thompson).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.91 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (14:03) 7-C.Catanzaro 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:09) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to NYJ 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-J.Natson ran ob at NYJ 46 for 17 yards.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:09) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to CAR 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-K.Clay for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 74%

    (:25) 9-G.Gano 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.