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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 1

New York Jets 17 – Carolina Panthers 18

What Actually Happened

(14:03) 7-C.Catanzaro 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +4.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.11 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.71 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.91 EP