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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 22

Carolina Panthers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 9-G.Gano 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.45 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 32, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP