4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 89

New York Jets 3 – Carolina Panthers 9

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to CAR 43, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 22-C.McCaffrey to NYJ 49 for 8 yards (47-D.Bass).

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.88 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 89, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model