Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 78

New York Jets 10 – Carolina Panthers 12

(13:31) 4-L.Edwards punts 60 yards to CAR 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-K.Clay to CAR 26 for 8 yards (51-J.Stanford; 45-R.Miles).

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.21 EP
72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model