Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 69

Carolina Panthers 18 – New York Jets 20

(13:09) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to NYJ 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-J.Natson ran ob at NYJ 46 for 17 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 69, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model