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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 15

Carolina Panthers 9 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 9-G.Gano 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 15, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model