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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 42

New York Jets 10 – Carolina Panthers 12

What Actually Happened

(7:50) 4-L.Edwards punts 28 yards to CAR 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-K.Clay.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.48 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP