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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 87

Carolina Panthers 12 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to NYJ 35, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 32 for -3 yards (54-S.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.64 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 87, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 45, worth -2.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model