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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 39

Carolina Panthers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:54) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at NYJ 30 for 9 yards (58-D.Lee).

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.49 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -3.20 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model