Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 76

Carolina Panthers 12 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 5-M.Palardy punts 41 yards to NYJ 35, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-J.Natson MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYJ 35. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 35 for no gain (19-R.Shepard).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.45 EP
66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 76, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model