4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 13

New York Jets 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 7-C.Catanzaro 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +3.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.26 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 13, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP