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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2017-11-26 · 13:00 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 8.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

BUF
32.5%
KC
67.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: -0.108 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Alex Smith (KC): +0.163 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • KC defense: +0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • BUF defense: +0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 19
–
KC 25
Projected margin: KC by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

BUF

Cordy Glenn T Out Foot
John Miller G Out Ankle
Mike Tolbert RB Out Hamstring
Kelvin Benjamin WR Questionable Knee
Charles Clay TE Questionable Knee
Jordan Matthews WR Questionable Knee
Deonte Thompson WR Questionable Ankle

KC

Dee Ford LB Out Back
Terrance Smith LB Out Concussion
Albert Wilson WR Questionable Hamstring
Allen Bailey DE Questionable Knee
Tamba Hali LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 16
–
KC 10

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:36 TD BUF (1:36) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 11-Z.Jones for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. BUF 6 – KC 0
  • Q2 12:05 FG BUF (12:05) 4-S.Hauschka 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 10 – KC 0
  • Q2 01:48 FG KC (1:48) 7-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. BUF 10 – KC 3
  • Q2 00:09 FG BUF (:09) 4-S.Hauschka 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 13 – KC 3
  • Q3 09:26 TD KC (9:26) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 12-A.Wilson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – KC 9
  • Q3 06:56 FG BUF (6:56) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 16 – KC 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 22%

    (12:49) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to KC 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 6 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (11:50) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to BUF 34, Center-41-J.Winchester. 15-B.Tate to BUF 48 for 14 yards (42-A.Sherman). PENALTY on BUF-24-L.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 45.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (9:48) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to KC 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 19 for 5 yards.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 4 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (8:22) 2-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to BUF 25, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 15 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (7:05) 6-C.Schmidt punts 41 yards to KC 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:05) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to BUF 22, Center-41-J.Winchester. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at BUF 42 for 20 yards (31-A.Hunt).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (15:00) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to BUF 43, Center-41-J.Winchester. 15-B.Tate to KC 44 for 13 yards (80-J.Chesson).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 93%

    (12:05) 4-S.Hauschka 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (10:30) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to BUF 13, Center-41-J.Winchester. 15-B.Tate to BUF 23 for 10 yards (80-J.Chesson).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 11 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 67%

    (3:36) 4-S.Hauschka 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 81%

    (1:48) 7-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 57%

    (:09) 4-S.Hauschka 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 14 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 72%

    (6:56) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 12 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:58) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to KC 33, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 28 for -5 yards (57-L.Alexander).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 11 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:45) 2-D.Colquitt punts 47 yards to BUF 11, Center-41-J.Winchester. 15-B.Tate MUFFS catch, touched at BUF 11, and recovers at BUF 15. 15-B.Tate to BUF 15 for no gain (57-K.Pierre-Louis).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (14:21) 6-C.Schmidt punts 40 yards to KC 38, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (12:11) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to BUF 19, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 30%

    (7:17) 6-C.Schmidt punts 36 yards to KC 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-30-L.Pitts.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 4 at the 46 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 33%

    (2:54) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 10-T.Hill. KC-10-T.Hill was injured during the play.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 12 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:35) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to KC 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.