4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to BUF 22, Center-41-J.Winchester. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at BUF 42 for 20 yards (31-A.Hunt).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.83 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 73, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 31, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model