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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 57

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to BUF 19, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.66 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 57, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP