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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 67

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to BUF 13, Center-41-J.Winchester. 15-B.Tate to BUF 23 for 10 yards (80-J.Chesson).

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.82 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 67, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 25, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP