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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 16

Buffalo Bills 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 4-S.Hauschka 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +2.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.88 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 16, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP