4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 33

Buffalo Bills 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(3:36) 4-S.Hauschka 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.23 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 33, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model