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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 37

Buffalo Bills 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(:09) 4-S.Hauschka 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.03 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model