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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 31

Buffalo Bills 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.88 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model