Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 56

Buffalo Bills 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

(2:35) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to KC 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +0.88 EP
71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 56, worth -2.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model