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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 46

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(2:54) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 10-T.Hill. KC-10-T.Hill was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.27 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 13, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model